Estimating the Production Cost of Bitcoin (BTC). This article delves into the complex Bitcoin difficulty adjustment process, highlighting its vital role in balancing the mining sector. Furthermore, we examine the estimation of production costs and the derivation of metrics that provide valuable insights into the cyclical patterns of the mining market.
Estimating the Production Cost of Bitcoin (BTC)
Miners play a crucial role in the Bitcoin network, acting as the architects responsible for creating and organizing blocks while safeguarding against chain reorganizations. In return for their contributions, miners receive newly generated coins and transaction fees as rewards. They form the productive sector of the Bitcoin ecosystem and operate in a highly competitive industry, striving to earn Bitcoin-based revenue by utilizing power, capital expenditures (CAPEX), and operational expenditures (OPEX) denominated in fiat currency.
The purpose of this report is to delve into the intricate correlation between miner profitability and issuance production. This will be accomplished by analyzing the dynamic interplay between these contrasting economic factors. The report will begin by examining essential metrics such as hash rate and difficulty and subsequently develop models to estimate the cost associated with Bitcoin production.
Estimating the Production Cost of Bitcoin (BTC)
The hash rate of a network represents the cumulative number of attempts made by miners every second to uncover a valid block hash. This impressive achievement is made possible with the assistance of millions of ASIC machines, which have the capacity to compute trillions of SHA-256 hashes within a single second. A visual representation below illustrates the estimated quantity of modern mining rigs required (assuming a homogeneous fleet) to generate the current hash rate, which amounts to millions of ASIC devices.
Consequently, the Hashrate is the outcome of both collective mining participation and the efficiency of ASIC rigs employed in the mining fleet. As miners operate in various electricity and equipment markets, the total hash rate reflects diverse mining approaches that are distinct and geographically dispersed.
The growth of Hashrate exhibits cyclical patterns and undergoes exponential decay as the efficiency of ASIC hardware reaches a plateau. Between 2022 and 2023, the hash rate has consistently increased at an approximate yearly rate of 30% to 50%.
Bitcoin’s Difficulty Adjustment, pioneered by Satoshi, allows the mining industry to independently achieve equilibrium.
The Mining Difficulty plays a vital role in the Bitcoin protocol by controlling the average time it takes to generate a new block. It measures the degree of difficulty in finding a hash value that is lower than a specific target.
Estimating the Production Cost of Bitcoin (BTC)
The re-targeting algorithm for difficulty adjustment connects miners’ activities with the issuance of new coins. As the protocol difficulty rises, the production cost of each BTC unit also increases. When there are changes in hash power competition, the difficulty adjustment mechanism restores balance, guaranteeing a predetermined schedule for BTC production regardless of competition levels.
Utilizing modeling techniques enables the estimation of production expenses
The Difficulty Regression Model is a technique used to estimate the overall cost of producing one unit of BTC, known as the all-in-sustaining cost. This model considers various mining factors and identifies Difficulty as the primary indicator of mining “price.” By performing a log-log regression analysis between Market Cap and Difficulty, a strong relationship between asset value and mining competition is revealed, with an R2 value exceeding 0.95.
As a result, the derived price represents an approximate average production cost of BTC across the mining sector. This estimation does not require a detailed breakdown of mining equipment, electricity expenses, or other logistical factors. By utilizing the results obtained from the Difficulty Regression Model, we can calculate the Total Production Cost by multiplying the calculated price by the total issued BTC supply.
The underlying principle of this model is based on the understanding that both operational and capital expenses are encompassed within the collective protocol Difficulty. Therefore, we can estimate the total expenditure across the mining industry. The accompanying chart illustrates two plots, providing further details about their content would be helpful.
The chart will display two plots:
Total Production Cost refers to the approximate daily expenditure for producing the mined coins.
Total Miner Revenue represents the combined value of each coin at the time it was mined.
Upon analyzing the given plots, we can develop a new measure to characterize the average operational efficiency of the mining industry. This measure compares the revenue generated with the estimated total production cost, utilizing a commonly used methodology known as the Revenue-to-Cost Ratio. This ratio is widely employed to evaluate the overall efficiency of a specific entity. In this case, we apply this metric to assess the efficiency of the Bitcoin Mining Industry.
It’s crucial to acknowledge that mining necessitates substantial capital investment, and the Revenue-to-Cost Ratios will reflect the continuously changing competition within the market. Various factors, such as the utilization of ASIC rigs, fluctuations in power costs and sources, and adjustments in difficulty levels due to varying levels of applied hash power, can all impact these ratios. Therefore, effective long-term capital management plays a vital role in the success of mining operations.
By leveraging the results of the Difficulty Regression Model, we can estimate the Total Production Cost by multiplying the calculated price with the issued BTC supply, providing an approximate value.
Mining Momentum Tracking
In order to incorporate halving cycles, we can utilize a ratio obtained by dividing the Revenue-to-Cost Ratio by its yearly moving average. This ratio provides valuable insights into the cyclical momentum of industry profitability, allowing us to evaluate the current overall profitability of miners in relation to a well-established baseline. The following framework can be used to interpret this ratio:
🔵 A positive Miner Revenue Momentum indicates that the mining industry is currently experiencing an upward trend in revenue multiples compared to the yearly average.
🟠Conversely, a negative Miner Revenue Momentum signifies that the mining industry is currently undergoing a decline in revenue multiples relative to the yearly average.
Analyzing the Evolution of Revenue and Production Costs
By analyzing the total revenue generated by miners over time and comparing it to the projected production cost of all currently circulating coins, we can assess the long-term performance of two interconnected aspects within the mining industry.
This model considers the following two elements:
🟢 Thermocap and Transaction Fees: These factors are determined by multiplying the cumulative issuance of coins by the spot price and adding the total revenue generated from fees.
🔴 Difficulty Production Cost: This is calculated by multiplying the cumulative issuance of coins by the Difficulty Regression Price.
Thermocap and Transaction Fees reflect the actual revenue earned by miners, while Difficulty Production Cost represents the overall expenses incurred in mining operations.
Estimating the Production Cost of Bitcoin (BTC)
Since its introduction to public trading in 2010, Bitcoin has generated a staggering revenue of $48.8 billion for miners. However, the production cost associated with mining operations is estimated to be around $35.8 billion. As a result, the mining industry has experienced a surplus of approximately $13.0 billion, translating to an overall profit margin of 37%. It’s worth noting that profit margins have remained relatively slim since 2015.
Interestingly, during the course of trading, miners’ revenue exceeded the daily production cost in 47% of instances, indicating that 53% of trading days resulted in unprofitability for the average miner. According to economic theory, a perfect market achieves a delicate balance between supply and demand, with asset prices approaching production costs. Given the close approximation of these figures to a 50:50 scenario, one could argue that the difficulty adjustment mechanism has played a crucial role in attaining this equilibrium.
Conclusion
Determining the production costs of Bitcoin involves estimating the expenses associated with generating a new unit of digital currency. This process entails evaluating the costs related to energy consumption and the necessary equipment for mining Bitcoin.
Bitcoin mining encompasses the creation of fresh Bitcoins by verifying and adding transaction records to the blockchain ledger. Miners employ powerful computers to solve complex mathematical problems that require significant energy and computational power, resulting in substantial costs.
When estimating Bitcoin’s production costs, researchers typically consider the energy consumption of the Bitcoin network and the equipment expenses associated with mining. The energy consumption of Bitcoin mining is determined by considering the total power consumed by the network, including the energy used by all miners and the cooling systems. Mining equipment costs encompass expenses related to specialized mining hardware such as ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits), as well as cooling fans, power supplies, and housing components.
The mining difficulty level is another factor that impacts the cost of Bitcoin production. The Bitcoin network adjusts the difficulty level periodically to maintain a consistent rate of Bitcoin creation. As the difficulty level increases, mining Bitcoins becomes more challenging and costly.
